Vilnius University Associate Professor of the Department of Hydrology and Climatology, climatologist Gintautas Stankūnavičius shared the world weather overview and forecasts.
According to Gintautas Stankūnavičius, the beginning of April in Lithuania was moderately warm, but very changeable. Although it was only the second decade of the month, it was already enough to record several abnormally warm periods. The first started at the turn of the month and reached its peak on April 2, when the maximum air temperature in Eastern Lithuania reached +20 - +24 °C. After that, the direction of air transport changed and a sudden cooling of the weather followed. The coldest day was April 3 (+2 - +6 °C), and the night was April 4 (-2,5 - 0,5 °C). However, this portion of cold air did not last long in Lithuania and the weather began to warm again due to the renewed strong air transfer from the Mediterranean region and the northern part of Africa. Thus, already on April 7 in the western and southwestern parts of Lithuania, the air temperature rose again to +20 °C and above, on April 8 in the southern part of Lithuania, and on the 9th, the maximum air temperature exceeded +20 °C in all of Lithuania: from +21 to +23 °C at the seaside to +24,5 – +28,5 °C in the rest of Lithuania. Aerosols from northern Africa also reached us with the abnormal heat, which increased the cloudiness of the atmosphere. Finally, on April 10, when a cold atmospheric front was moving, this very warm and aerosol-saturated air mass was probably pushed out of the western part of Lithuania, while strong heat (+23 - +26,4 °C) was still recorded in the eastern part. We are currently slowly but surely returning to a "normal" mid-April temperature pattern, which is expected to turn into a cold one next week.
"This anomalous heat was characteristic not only of Lithuania and neighboring territories, but of the greater part of Europe. On the tenth day of the first month, the highest positive temperature deviation from the norm was recorded in Central Europe (Eastern Germany, Southwestern Poland and the Czech Republic) – more than 8 °C above the norm, as well as in the Black Earth region of Russia. On the contrary, in northern Scandinavia, Iceland and the northern part of Russia (Karelia, Kola Peninsula, Arkhangelsk Region, Republic of Komi and Nenets District), the average air temperature was 3-5 °C lower than normal. Such an uneven distribution of intense thermal anomalies was caused by anomalously low pressure (< -20 hPa anomaly) in the Northeast Atlantic, which was formed by slow-moving but deep and regenerating Atlantic cyclones, whose centers lingered for the longest time just west of the island of Ireland. Such deep eddies acted as air pumps, drawing air from parts of southwestern Europe, the western Mediterranean, and northwestern Africa and carrying it deep into the European continent. On the contrary, these cyclones "pulled" cool and moist air masses towards Portugal, Spain, and the French Riviera, and in Ireland and part of Britain they caused strong storms (up to hurricane force) and heavy rains. It had a completely different effect on northern Europe, where the dominant air transport was from the northeast, carrying dry arctic air towards Iceland and northern Scandinavia," the climatologist writes.
"The air transfer (west, southwest) established in recent days over Central Europe is still favorable for the development of spring in Lithuania, but it will soon begin to change. This weekend, high pressure will persist in Central Europe, and several frontal systems will "penetrate" from the west at the northern edge of this system into the Baltic region. Therefore, it will rain in many places on Saturday night and morning and in the first half of Sunday, the air temperature will reach +6 - +11 °C at night, +9 - +14 °C during the day (a few degrees lower on the coast). The weather will gradually cool down from Monday. On Monday, as the back of the cyclone passes, the west wind will strengthen (gusts up to 17-22 m/s on the coast), on Tuesday the entire eastern part of the Baltic region will be in a low pressure system, which will be "filled" with cold air coming from the north. In the middle of next week, frosts are expected after clearing at night, and short-term showers during the day, which are possible in the second half of the week together with sleet. The forecast for next weekend is still not very reliable, but there is a higher chance that the weather will be cooler than normal," he added.
The climatologist says that next week it will be cold not only in Lithuania, but also in the greater part of Europe: night frosts will cover Central Europe, eastern France, southern Britain, in some places the Balkan Peninsula and, of course, the Baltic countries. Stronger cold will not retreat from northern Scandinavia, Iceland, northern Russia. On the contrary, it will warm more strongly in the very southeastern edge of Europe (Caspian Lowland, North Caucasus (up to +30 °C)) and in the very southwestern part (southern Portugal and southwestern Spain).
According to long-term weather forecasts, the second half of April will be cooler and wetter than normal in the Baltic region, and these trends will most likely move to the beginning of May. So, we will enjoy the early warmth for a short time.
